Revolutionary Reality In Yemen - What's The Future?

The injuries that President Saleh sustained recently in a bomb blast would appear to have effectively ended his presidency. The power vacuum that exists in the Yemen whilst the different factions battle for ascendancy is a concern. Less than 50 km away from the Yemeni coastline lies Djibouti, in Africa. Little is heard in the news about this small, independent republic and former French colony.

Strategic Routes

Between Yemen and Djibouti lies Bab el Mandeb - the 'Gate of Tears' - which is a strategic Strait, and a major transit channel for Middle Eastern oil and the Far East to Europe cargo trade via the Suez Canal. Those who control the Gate of Tears effectively control the Suez Canal.

Israeli Navy

It is also the route by which the Israeli Navy has access to the Indian Ocean. As such, that access is guaranteed by a Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Israel, underwritten diplomatically in 1975, and still current.

French and US Bases

Djibouti has a permanent French military presence - there is usually at least one French warship in port or nearby and the French Foreign Legion have a training base there. It still has strong diplomatic and trade links with France. Even more significantly, Camp Lemonnier near Djibouti City (the capital) is the only (publicly known) US military base in Africa, and was heavily used during the Special Rendition program after 9/11.

Critical Routes

Saudi Arabian oil exports have four main routes: from the Persian Gulf via the Straits of Hormuz, via the Suez Canal from ports on the west coast of Saudi Arabia, via the Sumed oil pipeline, which runs from Saudi Arabia to Alexandria on the Mediterranean Sea, and via Bab el Mandeb. So, Djibouti is in a powerful geographical position - power that it can leverage to obtain economic and certainly defence support from the 'West'. Similarly the Yemen, but there is an entirely different scenario there.

Internal Problems

Well, what of the Yemen itself? It has been subject to internal unrest for many years, and in the year 2000, the USS Cole was attacked by suicide bombers whilst refueling near Aden (its main port). Seventeen US sailors died. The US has had special forces deployed in the Yemen almost continuously for the past decade, but with a prospective new government, that could change. The recent flame of freedom which has burned across North Africa and even as far as Syria has taken hold in the Yemen. Yemen's population is split by tribal factions and Al Quaeda is believed to have an effective presence there, being heavily involved in the unrest and just this week killing a dozen Yemeni soldiers at a fake checkpoint.

Fifty percent (give or take) of Saudi Arabian oil moves through two narrow straits - Hormuz and the Gate of Tears, each bordered by unstable countries. A Yemeni government controlled by Al Quaeda would be a disaster for the West.

(c) 2011 Ezeebooks UK.