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When it comes to U.S. energy prices, everything seems to be affected by demand. For instance, if there is a higher demand for oil, then the gas prices go up. Oddly enough the economic climate should have lowered the standard cost, but due to the demand in other countries, it's a lot higher then we would expect.
In between the late seventies up to 2004, the oil consumption rose by 28.6%. This year's increase in China was 25.8%. The demand in South Korea skyrocketed over this time by 344%. It's hard to believe that before the turn of the 21st century, the cost for a barrel of oil was $12. Today it has risen to around $70.
The price of crude oil directly influences the cost of other fuels. Whether it be for production or generation, crude oil and other fossil fuels are vital to electricity, gasoline, and petroleum. Although oil prices dropped in the first half of 2009, due to a fall in consumption of 1.25 million barrels a day, the price will rise again in 2010 as industry recovers from the recession and demand begins to rise once more.
The good news is we can expect it to drop again around the fourth quarter of 2009. Unfortunately, when the prices do go back up, we can easily expect a 40c per gallon increase in between those times. While this may true on the gas side of the things, the electricity prices are supposed to decline by 2% thanks to cheaper fossil fuel prices.
While the economy remains unstable, U.S. energy prices will be less certain. In the supply and demand chain, if fuel prices suddenly rise too high, demand will decrease as smaller businesses and companies can no longer afford production. However, while prices are on the decline it will help industry pick up again as their profits increase. The delicate balance should be maintained by both crude oil sales and industry relying on each other. Undoubtedly, as the economy picks up speed once more, crude oil prices will increase. It is only a matter of time before other fuel prices follow.
We saw a huge fall in electricity consumption the first part of 2009 due to businesses and households cutting back to save money. The economy is also to blame for the 4.4% decrease from 2008. By the second half of 2009 though, this decline leveled out at a 2.3% decrease, and it looks as though the U.S. prices will remain lower until the end of the year. Once the economy settles down, the industry will be able to improve and build upon rising costs once again. Then again, electricity prices are estimated to decline by 2% in 2010.
When anyone discusses U.S. energy prices, the mention of the economy is soon to follow. It's safe to say that the recession is far from over, and could take at least another year for positive turnarounds. However, as long as there is uncertainty in the financial industry, it's hard to say when this increase will actually take place.
Crude oil prices seem to try to preempt the economy at every step of the way. When figures were released to suggest that the U.S. economy was recovering, prices jumped up, boosting the retail price of gasoline and petroleum. However, these prices dropped again almost immediately as it was made clear that a select amount of data was not the go ahead for a stable economy. For instance, although unemployment benefit claims have declined, the levels of unemployment at still not at a healthy level. While the economy recovers, U.S. energy prices will remain volatile.
Oddly enough, the lowered demand for energy has still left the fuel stockpile prices higher then we expected. Keep in mind this is lowering the price since more is available. However, items such as natural gas have reached a new 5-year high. Thinking ahead; it will be a long while before demand supersedes the supply and prices rise. If the industry stays encouraged during this time, it will be well on its way to recovery.
What it comes down to is the U.S. energy prices have declined due to the lack of demand. However, as long as the economy fluctuates throughout the world, prices will continue on their roller coaster ride. Early on in 2010 expect to see a gradual increase in gasoline costs, but for now, enjoy the decrease. |
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